Predicted Death Counts in the German National Cohort 2014 – 2110

Based on the study protocol of the German National Cohort (n = 200.000 between 20 and 69 years of age, recruited 2014 – 2018), one of the largest observational studies ever, and the model population data in the generation/cohort life tables of the German National Statistical Office, we deterministically predict total number of deaths of males and females from 2014 up to the last year 2110, when the youngest age group recruited – the birth cohort of 1998, recruited in 2018 – reaches age 112, the ultimate age in the generation life tables used here. We predict the death counts at any given calendar year that is approximately attributable to the birth cohorts of the five age groups at recruitment (20 – 29, 30 – 39, 40 – 49, 50 – 59, 60 – 69), namely 1945 – 1956, 1957 – 1966, 1967 – 1976, 1977 – 1986, 1987 – 1998. We furthermore differentiate by age group at death of 20 – 64, 65 – 74, 75 – 84, 85 – 99, 100+, 105+, 110+. The health care quality parameter „avoidable deaths” or „mortality amenable to medical/health care” referring to deaths which by most definitions occur before age 49, 65 or 75, can be observed from the onset of the survey until 2063 or 2073. On the other hand, the German National Cohort, from 2045 onwards, can be expected to generate 10.352 centenarians (100+), from 2050 onwards, 1442 semisupercentenarians (105+) and from 2055 onwards 73 supercentenarians (110+). Possibly these latter projections will even prove to be too low. We further differentiate between participants and non-participants in order to estimate the effects of the „healthy volunteer bias”, and find even under strong assumptions that such an effect will cause only minor bias. We finally show, how well period-, cohort- and life-cycle-effects may be distinguished in the death counts in the study population, broken down by age, sex and year of death. These predictions may serve practical policy purposes as well as an infrastructure for research.