Abstract
In a prospective study 99 consecutive patients with opera tive indication due to severe
aortic Stenosis (AS) were put on a surgical waiting list. The waiting-time to aortic
valve replacement (AVR) averaged 6.3 months (0.5-19 months). There were 58 men and
41 women with a mean age of 61 years (21 -82 years). The patients were divided into
three groups: group I (n = 81) with an uneventful stay on the waiting list (including
one patient who declined the AVR offer); group II (n = 11) with significant worsening
of a prognostic index; and group III (n = 7) with patients who died during the waiting-time.
The waiting-list death rate was 13.5 ± 5.0% · patient-year-1 compared with a post-AVR death rate of 4.9 ± 0.9% ?patient-year-1 (p < 0.05) with a mean post-AVR follow-up of 5.7 years. According to their prognostic
index at inclusion, group II patients had a predicted (by a Cox model) 7-year post-AVR
survival probability of 72%, but only of 61 % according to their prognostic index
immediately preoperatively; their observed 7-year post-AVR survival was 60%. Logistic
regression analysis identified high age, short duration of Symptoms, severe hypertrophy
and strain in the ECG, female sex, and deranged left-ventricular diastolic function
(related to severely increased left-ventricular muscle mass) as independent predictors
of death on the waiting-list and prognosis worsening. From a clinical viewpoint, the
predictive modeis did not allow sufficiently accurate identification of the patients
at risk during the waiting-time. The consequences of a surgical waiting-time averaging
6 months are serious for AS patients. The death rate is high and a subgroup worsen
their prognostic profile, with significantly reduced post-AVR long-term survival as
the result.
Key words
Aortic valve Stenosis - Aortic valve replacement - Natural history - Prognosis - Left-ventricular
diastolic function
