Abstract
This study examined the validity, precision and accuracy of the predictions of
distance running performances in female runners from three nomograms. Official
rankings of French women for the 3000-m, 5000-m, and 10 000-m
track-running events from 2005 to 2019 were examined. Only female runners who
performed in the three distance events within the same year were included
(n=158). Each performance over any distance was predicted using the
three nomograms from the two other performances. The 3000-m, 5000-m and
10 000-m performances were 11min17 s±1min20 s, 19min29
s±2min20 s, 41min18 s±5min7 s, respectively. No difference was
found between the actual and predicted running performances regardless of the
nomogram (p>0.05). All predicted running performances were significantly
correlated with the actual ones, with a very high correlation coefficient
(p<0.001; r>0.90). Bias and 95% limits of agreement were
acceptable because, whatever the nomogram, they were less than or equal to
− 0.0±6.2% on the 3000-m,
0.0±3.7% on the 5000-m, and 0.1±9.3% on the
10 000-m. The study confirms the validity of the three nomograms to
predict track-running performance with a high level of accuracy. The predictions
from these nomograms are similar and may be used in training programs and
competitions.
Key words
estimation - modeling - time to exhaustion - validity - female athletes
