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CC BY 4.0 · TH Open 2025; 09: a27199061
DOI: 10.1055/a-2719-9061
Original Article

National Early Warning Score for Predicting Clinical Outcome of Acute Pulmonary Embolism in Intermediate–High Risk Patients

Authors

  • Audrey J. C. Overgaauw

    1   Department of Internal Medicine, Amsterdam UMC, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, Amsterdam, The Netherlands

  • Esther J. Nossent

    2   Department of Pulmonary Medicine, Amsterdam UMC, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, Amsterdam, The Netherlands
    6   Amsterdam Cardiovascular Sciences Research Institute, Amsterdam UMC, Amsterdam, The Netherlands

  • Lilian J. Meijboom

    3   Department of Radiology and Nuclear Medicine, Amsterdam UMC, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, Amsterdam, The Netherlands
    6   Amsterdam Cardiovascular Sciences Research Institute, Amsterdam UMC, Amsterdam, The Netherlands

  • Erik H. Serne

    1   Department of Internal Medicine, Amsterdam UMC, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, Amsterdam, The Netherlands

  • Yvo M. Smulders

    1   Department of Internal Medicine, Amsterdam UMC, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, Amsterdam, The Netherlands

  • Prabath W. B. Nanayakkara

    1   Department of Internal Medicine, Amsterdam UMC, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, Amsterdam, The Netherlands

  • Harm Jan Bogaard

    2   Department of Pulmonary Medicine, Amsterdam UMC, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, Amsterdam, The Netherlands
    6   Amsterdam Cardiovascular Sciences Research Institute, Amsterdam UMC, Amsterdam, The Netherlands

  • Pieter Roel Tuinman

    4   Department of Intensive Care Medicine, Amsterdam UMC, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, Amsterdam, The Netherlands

  • Erik A. Klok

    5   Department of Medicine – Thrombosis and Hemostasis, Leiden UMC, Leiden, The Netherlands
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Abstract

Background

Although the European Society of Cardiology (ESC) predicts mortality in acute pulmonary embolism (PE), it may overtriage the level of clinical monitoring needed. The National Early Warning Score (NEWS) is used to triage level of care in many diseases, but it is rarely reported in PE literature.

Methods

In this retrospective, single-center, observational cohort study of consecutive adults with acute PE, between 2017 and 2020, we aim to assess the association between NEWS and the risk of hemodynamic (HD) deterioration or PE-related death in intermediate–high risk PE patients. The NEWS at admission and after 24 hours were determined. A baseline NEWS of ≥5 or the maximum score of a single parameter was considered an indication of high risk of our primary outcome (hemodynamic deterioration and/or PE-related mortality).

Results

ESC classified 99 of 318 patients with PE as intermediate–high risk; 8 patients (8%) met the primary outcome. A total of 52 (52%) patients had an elevated NEWS and 7 of these met the primary outcome (13%), while only 1 patient with a non-elevated NEWS (2.0%) met the primary outcome (negative predictive value of 98%; 95% CI 90–98%). Sensitivity of elevated NEWS in patients with intermediate–high risk was 88% (95% CI 74–90%) and the specificity was 51% (95% CI 41–61%).

Conclusion

Using NEWS in intermediate–high risk, acute PE patients may improve accuracy in identifying patients with a higher risk of adverse outcomes and may guide the decision to monitor a patient in a high-care department, especially in patients with intermediate–high risk PE.

Keywords

pulmonary thromboembolism - risk assessment - critical care - early warning score

Authors' Contributions

A.J.C.O.: guarantor of the paper; acquired all data, performed statistical analysis, and wrote the manuscript; E.N. and F.A.K.: study design, statistical analysis, and preparation of the manuscript; L.M.: selection of patients by CTPA. All other authors were involved in the study design and corrections of the manuscript. All authors read and agreed with the submitted manuscript.




Publication History

Received: 04 July 2024

Accepted: 06 October 2025

Accepted Manuscript online:
13 October 2025

Article published online:
04 November 2025

© 2025. The Author(s). This is an open access article published by Thieme under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, permitting unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction so long as the original work is properly cited. (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/)

Georg Thieme Verlag KG
Oswald-Hesse-Straße 50, 70469 Stuttgart, Germany

Bibliographical Record
Audrey J. C. Overgaauw, Esther J. Nossent, Lilian J. Meijboom, Erik H. Serne, Yvo M. Smulders, Prabath W. B. Nanayakkara, Harm Jan Bogaard, Pieter Roel Tuinman, Erik A. Klok. National Early Warning Score for Predicting Clinical Outcome of Acute Pulmonary Embolism in Intermediate–High Risk Patients. TH Open 2025; 09: a27199061.
DOI: 10.1055/a-2719-9061
 

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