Predictors of poor outcome in the acute phase after a first-ever stroke in a population-based study in Matão, Brazil

Abstract

Background The data on predictors of poor outcomes for stroke patients in middle-income countries are lacking.

Objective To identify in the acute phase after a first-ever stroke (FES) predictors of a poor outcome within 3 months and 1 year in a population-based study in the town of Matão, state of São Paulo, Brazil.

Methods We prospectively investigated the characteristics of patients with FES in Matão, from a prospective study, in a population-based stroke registry, from 2015 to 2020. Poor outcome was defined as a modified Rankin scale (mRS) score of 3 to 6, assessed at 3 months and 1 year of follow-up. The association between predictors and poor outcome was analyzed by logistic regression analysis.

Results Of the 783 patients, the final sample consisted of 378 subjects for analysis. The mean age was 69.2(± 14.3) years, and 43.1% of patients were female. At 3 months and 1 year after a FES, 50.4% and 47.1% of stroke patients were classified as poor prognosis, respectively. Older age, female gender, hemiplegia, aphasia, subarachnoid hemorrhage, and comorbidities present in the acute phase were the predictors associated with a poor outcome.

Conclusion Non-modified and potentially modified predictors increase the risk of a poor FES prognosis in a population-based study from a middle-income country. Interventions focusing on these target populations and improving access to prevention and stroke management in the acute phase are necessary.

Keywords

Stroke - Prognosis - Risk - Population - Prospective Studies

Authors' Contributions

CM: created the study protocol, analyzed the data, and drafted the paper; GCR: designed and performed the statistical analysis; LTU and EMLC: implemented and supervised the survey; MRC and OMPN: critically revised the manuscript for critical content.

Data Availability Statement

All data generated or analyzed during this study are included in this article. Further enquiries can be directed to the corresponding author.

Editor-in-Chief: Ayrton Roberto Massaro.

Associate Editor: Antonio Arauz Góngora.

Publikationsverlauf

Eingereicht: 08. Juli 2024

Angenommen: 03. November 2024

Artikel online veröffentlicht:
19. März 2025

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