Technology Assessment and Forecasting of Medical Expert Systems (MEST)

Summary

This paper provides an analytical framework for technology assessment of emerging medical expert system technology (MEST). It is argued that expert system technology, though based on different principles of technological design, emanates generically from computerized systems of medical decision-making and automated decision aids.

A taxonomic decision procedure is developed to assess comprehensively the benefit/cost impacts of prototypical MEST.

The results obtained will be used in a technology diffusion model to forecast the spread of the use of MEST among major teaching and research hospitals. Key factors likely to constrain the use of MEST will be subject to additional evaluation.

Diese Arbeit stellt ein analytisches Instrumentarium bereit zur Bewertung von wissensbasierten medizinischen Expertensystemen (MEST). Es wird dabei davon ausgegangen, daß zwischen dieser Technologie und rechnergestützten Systemen medizinischer Entscheidungsfindung und automatisierten Entscheidungshilfen ein generischer Zusammenhang besteht. Es wird ein taxonomisches Entscheidungsverfahren entwickelt, das eine Abschätzung des Kosten-Nutzen-Verhältnisses eines MEST erlaubt.

Die Ergebnisse werden als Input in einem Technologie-Diffusions-Modell verwendet, um die Ausbreitung von MEST in Krankenhäusern mit Schrittmacherfunktion abschätzen zu können.

Key-Words:

Technology Assessment - Technological Forecasting - Medical Expert Systems

Schlüssel-Wörter:

Technologiefolgeabschätzung - Technologie-Prognose - Medizinische Expertensysteme

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