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Methods Inf Med 2008; 47(06): 529-540
DOI: 10.3414/ME9124
Original Article
Schattauer GmbH

Validating a Markov Model of Treatment for Hepatitis C Virus-related Hepatocellular Carcinoma

Authors

  • H. Ishida

    1   Department of Medical Informatics and Decision Sciences, Yamaguchi University Hospital, Yamaguchi, Japan

  • J.B. Wong

    2   Department of Internal Medicine, New England Medical Center, Tufts University, Medford, MA, USA

  • K. Hino

    3   Department of Internal Medicine, Kawasaki Medical School, Kurashiki, Japan

  • F. Kurokawa

    4   Department of Internal Medicine, Yamaguchi Rosai Hospital, Yamaguchi, Japan

  • S. Nishina

    5   Department of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Yamaguchi University Graduate School of Medicine, Yamaguchi, Japan

  • I. Sakaida

    5   Department of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Yamaguchi University Graduate School of Medicine, Yamaguchi, Japan

  • K. Okita

    6   Department of Internal Medicine, Shimonoseki Kousei Hospital, Jamaguchi, Japan

  • T. Tamesa

    7   Department of Digestive Surgery and Surgical Oncology, Yamaguchi University Graduate School of Medicine, Yamaguchi, Japan

  • M. Oka

    7   Department of Digestive Surgery and Surgical Oncology, Yamaguchi University Graduate School of Medicine, Yamaguchi, Japan

  • T. Torimura

    8   Department of Digestive Disease Information and Research, Kurume University School of Medicine, Kurume, Japan

  • M. Sata

    8   Department of Digestive Disease Information and Research, Kurume University School of Medicine, Kurume, Japan

  • S. Takahash

    9   Department of Medicine and Molecular Science, Graduate School of Biomedical Science, Hiroshima University, Hiroshima, Japan

  • K. Chayama

    9   Department of Medicine and Molecular Science, Graduate School of Biomedical Science, Hiroshima University, Hiroshima, Japan

  • Y. Inoue

    1   Department of Medical Informatics and Decision Sciences, Yamaguchi University Hospital, Yamaguchi, Japan
Further Information

Publication History

Publication Date:
18 January 2018 (online)

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Summary

Objective: We created and validated a Markov model to simulate the prognosis with treatment for HCV-related hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) for assessment of cost-effectiveness for alternative treatments of HCC.

Method: Markov state incorporated into the model consisted of the treatment as a surrogate for HCC stage and underlying liver function. Retrospective data of 793 patients from three university hospitals were used to determine Kaplan-Meier survival curves for each treatment and transition probabilities were derived from them.

Results: There was substantial overlap in the 95% CIs of the Markov model predicted and the Kaplan-Meier survival curves for each therapy. The predicted survival curves were also similar with those from the nationwide survey data supporting the external validity of our model.

Conclusions: Our Markov model estimates for prognosis with HCC have both internal and external validity and should be considered applicable for estimating cost-effectiveness related to HCC.

Keywords

Hepatocellular carcinoma - prognosis - survival rate - Markov model - validation