Summary
Objective:
Tobacco is the major cause of cancer and a relevant risk factor for several other
chronic diseases. Due to the epidemiological transition in developing countries with
overall increasing life expectancy there is an increasing relevance of chronic diseases
to the total burden of diseases. Furthermore, there are indications for a rise in
the consumption of tobacco products in developing countries. Since in Africa data
on smoking prevalence are scarce and cancer diagnosis is often imprecise or missing,
it is difficult to estimate the current and future number of cancer cases attributable
to tobacco smoking. In this paper, we present an approach to estimate the effects
of smoking on lung cancer in selected developing countries in Africa.
Methods:
We combined data on smoking prevalence from different African countries with estimates
on age-specific lung cancer rates in smokers and non-smokers from industrialized countries
and data on age and sex distribution in African countries. We perform a sensitivity
analysis to evaluate the effect of the assumptions necessary for the procedure.
Results:
If the smoking prevalence in African countries will remain on the current level,
we estimate age-specific lung cancer rates lower than those in Germany. Despite the
relatively small proportion of adults aged 50 and more which is the age when most
cancer cases occur, there is an appreciable number of deaths from lung cancer that
could be prevented when smoking prevalence could be reduced. Depending on assumptions
we estimate up about 50,000 lung cancer deaths per year in Africa, most of which could
be prevented.
Conclusions:
Efforts for smoking prevalence reduction are much more needed in the developing world.
Better and more comprehensive data on smoking are needed for more precise estimates.
Keywords
Lung cancer - smoking - Africa
