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DOI: 10.1055/s-0044-1783300
Predictive Value of Albumin-Platelet-Diameter of Portal Vein Risk Score for Large Oesophageal Varices in Compensated Cirrhosis
Authors
Aims The Albumin-Platelet-Diameter of the portal vein (APD) is a non-invasive scoring system originally designed for screening high-risk oesophageal varices (OV) in hepatitis B patients with compensated advanced liver disease. In this study, we evaluate the APD score's performance in predicting large OV in patients with compensated cirrhosis of various causes.
Methods We retrospectively analysed data from patients with compensated cirrhosis, followed-up in our centre over 13 years, and who underwent upper gastrointestinal endoscopy. Large OV were classified using the American Association for the Study of Liver Diseases' 2-grade system. We calculated the APD risk score using the formula: APD=4.780+0.338×Portal Vein Diameter (mm) -0.025×Platelet Count (G/l) -0.184×Albumin (g/l). To assess the APD score's performance, we used receiver-operating-characteristic (ROC) analysis and calculated the area under ROC curve (AUROC).
Results We included a total of 66 patients in the study, with a mean age of 55 years±14 years, and 65.2% were female. The main aetiologies of cirrhosis were as follows: hepatitis B (n=24, 36.4%), hepatitis C (n=9, 13.6%), autoimmune liver disease (n=14, 21.2%), and metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (n=6, 9.1%). Only 10 patients (15.2%) had no OV, while 40 patients (60.6%) had large OV. The APD score effectively identified patients with large OV, demonstrating a notable AUROC of 0.80 (p<0.001). An APD score threshold above 0.34 yielded 95% sensitivity, 54% specificity, 76% positive predictive value, 88% negative predictive value, and 79% diagnostic accuracy.
Conclusions The APD risk score proves reliable, with excellent sensitivity for identifying large OV in patients with compensated cirrhosis.
Conflicts of interest
Authors do not have any conflict of interest to disclose.
Publication History
Article published online:
15 April 2024
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