Am J Perinatol 2013; 30(01): 011-020
DOI: 10.1055/s-0032-1333206
Original Article
Thieme Medical Publishers 333 Seventh Avenue, New York, NY 10001, USA.

Cost-Effectiveness of Trial of Labor after Previous Cesarean in a Minimally Biased Cohort

Sharon A. Gilbert
1   The George Washington University Biostatistics Center, Washington, District of Columbia
,
William A. Grobman
2   The Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, Northwestern University, Chicago, Illinois
,
Mark B. Landon
3   The Ohio State University, Columbus, Ohio
,
Catherine Y. Spong
4   The Eunice Kennedy Shriver National Institute of Child Health and Human Development, Bethesda, Maryland
,
Dwight J. Rouse
5   University of Alabama at Birmingham, Alabama
,
Kenneth J. Leveno
6   University of Texas Southwestern Medical Center, Dallas, Texas
,
Michael W. Varner
7   University of Utah, Salt Lake City, Utah
,
Ronald J. Wapner
8   Thomas Jefferson University, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania
,
Yoram Sorokin
9   Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, Wayne State University, Detroit, Michigan
,
Mary J. O'Sullivan
10   University of Miami, Miami, Florida
,
Baha M. Sibai
11   University of Tennessee, Memphis, Tennessee
,
John M. Thorp
12   University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, North Carolina
,
Susan M. Ramin
13   The University of Texas Health Science Center at Houston, Houston, Texas
,
Brian M. Mercer
14   Case Western Reserve University-MetroHealth Medical Center, Cleveland, Ohio
,
for the Eunice Kennedy Shriver National Institute of Child Health and Human Development Maternal-Fetal Medicine Units Network › Author Affiliations
Further Information

Address for correspondence and reprint requests

Sharon A. Gilbert, MS, MBA
The George Washington University
6110 Executive Blvd, Suite 750
Rockville, MD 20852   

Publication History

29 November 2012

06 December 2012

Publication Date:
04 January 2013 (online)

 

Abstract

Objective To estimate the cost-effectiveness of a trial of labor after one previous cesarean delivery (TOLAC).

Study Design A model comparing TOLAC with elective repeat cesarean delivery (ERCD) was developed for a hypothetical cohort with no contraindication to a TOLAC. Probabilistic estimates were obtained from women matched on their baseline characteristics using propensity scores. Cost data, quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), and data on cerebral palsy were incorporated from the literature.

Results The TOLAC strategy dominated the ERCD strategy at baseline, with $138.6 million saved and 1703 QALYs gained per 100,000 women. The model was sensitive to five variables: the probability of uterine rupture, the probability of successful TOLAC, the QALY of failed TOLAC, the cost of ERCD, and the cost of successful TOLAC without complications. When the probability of TOLAC success was at the base value, 68.5%, TOLAC was preferred if the probability of uterine rupture was 4.2% or less. When the probability of uterine rupture was at the base value, 0.8%, the TOLAC strategy was preferred as long as the probability of success was 42.6% or more.

Conclusion A TOLAC is less expensive and more effective than an ERCD in a group of women with balanced baseline characteristics.


#

In 2003 the Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality (AHRQ) published the results of an evidence report and technology assessment comparing the harms and benefits of delivery options for women after a prior cesarean delivery.[1] Incorporated in this report was a review of the economic literature on this topic. Of 13 publications reviewed, only two had methodologies that were highly rated.[2] [3] These two studies compared the cost-effectiveness of a trial of labor after a previous cesarean (TOLAC) with an elective repeat cesarean delivery (ERCD). Both concluded that TOLAC could be cost-effective when the probability of a successful TOLAC was sufficiently high.

Inherent to these analyses was the assumption that the probabilistic data used in the decision analytical models were derived from two groups (i.e., those women who had TOLAC and those who had ERCD) with similar baseline characteristics. However, this assumption was not accurate, as the studies from which the probabilistic data were derived actually were composed of two groups of women—those who underwent TOLAC and those who underwent ERCD—with different baseline characteristics.[4] [5] [6] [7] Consequently, it is uncertain whether the data used in the decision analytic models were biased and led to a bias in the ultimate results.

Ideally, a trial in which women were randomized to one of the delivery approaches would balance observed as well as unobserved baseline covariates and would produce the true treatment effect, but such a trial is unlikely to be undertaken. In the absence of a randomized trial, propensity score analysis may be used in an observational study to derive two groups with similar baseline characteristics. The data from these groups can then be used in decision analytic models with less concern for biased outcomes. Thus, this analysis was undertaken to determine whether TOLAC or ERCD is the more cost-effective strategy after one prior cesarean based on data derived from groups of women with similar baseline characteristics.

Methods

We developed a decision analysis model comparing a TOLAC with an ERCD for a hypothetical cohort of 100,000 women with no contraindication to a TOLAC. The analysis was based on the societal perspective, incorporating all health outcomes and economic costs regardless of who experienced the outcome or paid the costs.[8] The primary outcome was cost-effectiveness, measured as the marginal cost per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) gained, with a marginal cost per QALY ratio of less than $50,000 used to indicate a strategy is cost-effective.

The decision tree was developed using TreeAge Pro 2009 (TreeAge Software, Inc. Williamstown, MA). The initial decision represented a woman's approach to delivery, either a TOLAC or an ERCD. Women in the TOLAC arm experienced either a successful vaginal delivery, required a repeat cesarean during labor, or had a uterine rupture in association with a successful or failed TOLAC. Additional maternal and neonatal morbidity that occurred depended upon these outcomes or upon the alternate choice of an ERCD.

The probabilities for the decision tree primarily were obtained from data collected from 1999 through 2002 in a registry (the Cesarean Registry) by the Eunice Kennedy Shriver National Institute of Child Health and Human Development Maternal-Fetal Medicine Units Network. Nineteen academic centers comprising 32 hospitals throughout the United States participated in this observational study, in which data were collected on all women with a prior cesarean delivery. Institutional review board approval at each participating center was obtained. Study personnel at the medical centers abstracted data from patient charts under a waiver of informed consent. Further detail on specific methods of the study can be obtained from previously published articles.[5] [9]

Women who were eligible to have either an ERCD or a TOLAC and who had a singleton, term, vertex gestation and one prior low transverse incision (n = 22,068) comprised the population that was analyzed to obtain probabilities requisite for the model. A gestation was considered “term” if delivery occurred at or beyond 37 weeks' gestation. An ERCD was defined as a cesarean delivery without any indication other than the prior cesarean. Thus, women who had a repeat cesarean for indications such as placenta previa or active herpes were excluded from this analysis (n = 759). To ensure that women who underwent ERCD truly had no indication for the cesarean other than their choice, those who were reported to have a cesarean that was elective but who had an additional reported indication implying this was not the case (i.e., cephalopelvic disproportion, failure to progress, cord prolapse, nonreassuring tracing or abruption) were excluded (n = 262). Also, women were ineligible for the cohort if they had an ERCD prior to 39 weeks without spontaneous labor or premature rupture of membranes given that elective delivery prior to 39 weeks is associated with known adverse outcomes unrelated to mode of delivery (n = 3188).[10] Women who underwent ERCD, after experiencing spontaneous labor or rupture of membranes prior to 39 weeks, were included because they were eligible for, and would need to choose between, either ERCD or labor. Women who underwent a TOLAC but whose labors were induced also were excluded (n = 3235) because this intervention has been associated with a lower probability of success and a higher probability of uterine rupture and is not a probabilistic possibility but a choice that a woman and her provider make.[11] [12] Women with fetuses with major congenital malformations were not included because these conditions, unrelated to mode of delivery, would influence the newborn outcome (n = 120). Consequently, 14,504 women were available for analysis, of whom 8297 had a TOLAC and 6207 had an ERCD.

The propensity score methodology (R MatchIt library, http://www.r-project.org/) of one-to-one matching without replacement using the nearest Mahalanobis distance[13] was used to derive 3981 matched pairs of women who underwent either ERCD or TOLAC and who were balanced according to 43 baseline characteristics. This final cohort, approximately 80% of whom had no previous vaginal delivery, had a TOLAC success rate of 68.1%. All 31 cases of uterine rupture occurred in the TOLAC group, 27 in association with TOLAC failure. Further detailed information on the development of this cohort and the propensity score methodology can be found in Gilbert et al.[14]

The maternal outcomes recorded through delivery included endometritis (clinical diagnosis of puerperal uterine infection in the absence of findings suggesting another source), wound complication (seroma, hematoma, or infection), operative injury (broad ligament hematoma, cystotomy, or bowel or ureteral injury), peripartum hysterectomy, thromboembolism (deep vein thrombosis or pulmonary embolus), and maternal death. Cases of uterine rupture, modeled as a separate branch of the decision tree, were defined as a disruption or tear of the uterine muscle and visceral peritoneum or a uterine muscle separation with extension to adjacent structures. Neonatal outcomes recorded up to 120 days after delivery or hospital discharge (whichever occurred first) were acidemia (arterial cord pH less than 7.0), transient tachypnea of the newborn, respiratory distress syndrome (RDS), proven or confirmed sepsis, hypoxic ischemic encephalopathy (HIE), and infant death. A separate maternal and infant mutually exclusive hierarchy incorporating these outcomes was developed following the reverse order above, with death first. Because the Cesarean Registry was a short-term observational study and cerebral palsy (CP) could occur as a long-term consequence of an event (HIE) at the time of delivery, the probability of CP also was incorporated in the model by estimating that 12% of infants with HIE would ultimately be diagnosed with CP.[15]

The probabilities used in the model are shown in [Table 1]. The ranges were obtained from the 95% Blyth-Still-Casella binomial confidence intervals (from Stat-Xact, Cytel Software) based on the proportion of events in the matched data set.[16] Because the probability of successful TOLAC and uterine rupture have previously been shown to be variables to which the results are sensitive, these two variables were varied across a range wider than that which would have been derived from the dataset alone—34.0 to 100% and 0 to 5.0%, respectively.

Table 1

Probability Estimates in the Model

ERCD (n = 3981)

Uterine rupture (n = 31)

Failed TOLAC (n = 1244)

Successful TOLAC (n = 2706)

Outcomes

Baseline

Range

Baseline

Range

Baseline

Range

Baseline

Range

Maternal

 Death

0.025

0.001–0.138

0

0–9.733

0

0–0.278

0

0–0.128

 Thromboembolism

0.025

0.001–0.138

0

0–9.733

0

0–0.278

0

0–0.128

 Hysterectomy

0.277

0.138–0.489

3.226

0.165–16.060

0.161

0.028–0.558

0

0–0.128

 Operative injury

0.126

0.050–0.288

12.900

4.530–28.600

1.206

0.676–1.967

0

0–0.128

 Wound complication

0.855

0.601–1.175

0

0–9.733

1.206

0.676–1.967

0.074

0.013–0.256

 Endometritis

2.111

1.705–2.599

12.900

4.530–28.600

7.556

6.149–9.103

1.516

1.090–2.023

Infant

 Death

0.025

0.001–0.138

3.226

0.165–16.060

0.080

0.004–0.443

0

0–0.128

 HIE

0

0–0.087

3.226

0.165–16.060

0.080

0.041–0.443

0

0–0.128

 Sepsis

3.115

2.597–3.687

29.030

15.760–46.650

6.758

5.426–8.292

4.250

3.521–5.054

 RDS

0.528

0.327–0.804

0

0–9.733

1.046

0.558–1.767

0.517

0.300–0.841

 TTN

1.181

0.879–1.552

0

0–9.733

2.172

1.436–3.140

0.628

0.366–0.996

 Acidemia

0.226

0.112–0.427

6.452

1.159–20.030

0.724

0.360–1.340

0.037

0.002–0.203

Data presented as percent. Abbreviations: ERCD, elective repeat cesarean delivery; HIE, hypoxic ischemic encephalopathy; RDS, respiratory distress syndrome; TOLAC, trial of labor after a previous cesarean; TTN, transient tachypnea of the newborn.


With an exception for CP, the following costs were incorporated into the model and based on mode of delivery: hospital, obstetrician, pediatrician, anesthesiologist, and maternal and caregiver opportunity costs. A summary of these costs is provided in [Table 2] with further detail regarding the basis for these costs provided in the appendix. Hospital costs were obtained from the 2009 AHRQ's Healthcare Cost and Utilization Project Nationwide Inpatient Sample (HCUPnet), a nationwide database of hospital inpatient stays containing about 95% of all hospital discharges in the United States.[17] Based on the International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision codes, these costs represent direct and indirect costs. Obstetrician and pediatrician costs were obtained from the 2010 Current Procedural Terminology from the American Medical Association (AMA).[18] Because the Cesarean Registry did not contain data that would allow estimation of anesthesia costs, these costs were derived from the literature.[3] Maternal and caregiver postpartum opportunity costs were derived from the Bureau of Labor Statistics using the 2009 median hourly wage and salary averages for women 25 to 34 years old and for all individuals 16 years and older, respectively.[19] Because the costs associated with maternal and infant death are hard to quantify, as these events occur in such a large variety of circumstances, a range of 0 to $1 million was used, with baseline estimates of $20,000 and $50,000, respectively. For CP, hospital costs after delivery were estimated as twice the base cost of HIE, with the addition of approximately $9,000 for pediatrician fees and $23,800 per year for the next 49 years.[20] [21] [22]

Table 2

Cost Estimates in the Model

ERCD

Uterine rupture

Failed TOLAC

Successful TOLAC

Outcomes

Baseline

Range

Baseline

Range

Baseline

Range

Baseline

Range

Maternal

 Death

27.41

0–1,000.0

27.9

0–1,000.0

27.9

0–1,000.0

24.1

0–1,000.0

 Thromboembolism

16.61

8.3–66.4

19.1

9.6–76.5

18.4

9.2–73.5

13.3

6.7–53.3

 Hysterectomy

17.9

8.9–71.5

20.4

10.2–81.5

19.6

9.8–78.6

14.6

7.3–58.4

 Operative injury

13.9

6.9–55.6

16.4

8.2–65.6

15.7

7.8–62.6

10.6

5.3–42.5

 Wound complication

15.6

7.8–62.3

18.1

9.0–72.3

17.3

8.7–69.4

12.3

6.2–49.2

 Endometritis

15.7

7.9–63.0

18.2

9.1–73.0

17.5

8.8–70.0

12.5

6.2–49.9

 Well (no adverse outcome)

11.4

5.7–17.0

13.9

6.9–20.8

13.1

6.6–19.7

8.1

4.0–12.1

Infant

 Death

52.2

0–1,000.0

52.2

0–1,000.0

52.2

0–1,000.0

52.2

0–1,000.0

 Cerebral palsy

n/a

n/a

688.4

344.2–2,753.6

688.4

344.2–2,753.6

688.4

344.2–2,753.6

 HIE

40.9

20.4–163.5

40.9

20.4–163.5

40.9

20.4–163.5

40.9

20.4–163.5

 Sepsis

8.6

4.3–34.2

8.6

4.3–34.2

8.6

4.3–34.2

8.6

4.3–34.2

 RDS

25.5

12.7–101.9

25.9

12.9–103.5

25.5

12.7–101.9

25.5

12.7–101.9

 TTN

8.7

4.3–34.6

9.1

4.5–36.3

8.7

4.3–34.6

8.7

4.3–34.6

 Acidemia

7.3

3.7–29.3

7.7

3.9–30.9

7.3

3.7–29.3

7.3

3.7–29.3

 Well (no adverse outcome)

0.9

0.5–1.3

0.9

0.5–1.4

0.9

0.4–1.3

0.9

0.4–1.3

Currency in dollars ($thousands). Abbreviations: ERCD, elective repeat cesarean delivery; HIE, hypoxic ischemic encephalopathy; n/a, not applicable; RDS, respiratory distress syndrome; TOLAC, trial of labor after a previous cesarean; TTN, transient tachypnea of the newborn.


In sensitivity analysis, costs were ranged from 50 to 400% of the base-case estimate with the exception of those associated with maternal and well infant discharge, in which cases a range of 50 to 150% was used. Although such ranges included values that appeared beyond plausible in some cases, such a wide range ensured that the plausible range was contained within the interval and that threshold analyses could be judiciously performed.[23]

With the exception of CP, all outcomes (e.g., wound infection) occurred and were resolved during the initial hospitalization. Correspondingly, for the costs associated with these variables, no discounting was performed. Conversely, CP continued to affect a child and incur health care costs through the child's life, and thus these costs were discounted at 3% annually in the base-case. All costs are presented in 2009 dollars, with adjustments used, when needed, according to the medical care component of the Consumer Price Index.[24]

Disutilities or utility decrements were assigned based on the literature ([Table 3]).[3] [25] [26] Because information was limited, infants were assigned full utility (1) except in the case of infant death, CP, and HIE where disutilities of 0, 0.44, and 0.75, respectively, were assigned. QALYs were determined based on the disutilities and life expectancy, discounted at 3% in the base case. It was assumed mode of delivery per se did not alter maternal or neonatal life expectancy. Maternal and infant life expectancy was estimated to be 78 years except for in the case of CP where 50 years was assumed.[21] [27]

Table 3

Utility and QALY Estimates by Mode of Delivery or Outcome

Disutility

Disutility days

QALY

Mode of delivery/outcome

Baseline

Baseline

Range

Baseline

Range

Reference

ERCD

0.45

21

14–180

27.140

26.944–27.149

[3]

Uterine rupture

0.49

21

14–180

27.138

26.925–27.147

[3]

Failed TOLAC[a]

0.47

21

14–180

27.139

26.934–27.148

[3]

Successful TOLAC

0.35

7

2–42

27.160

27.126–27.164

[3]

Hysterectomy[b]

0.49

21

14–180

24.355

22.724–25.894

[3] [ 25]

Cerebral palsy[c]

0.44

All

All

14.840

10.336–19.611

[26]

HIE

0.75

42

14–180

30.824

30.787–30.901

Assumed

Infant[d]

n/a

n/a

n/a

30.910

7.728–23.183

Assumed

Abbreviations: ERCD, elective repeat cesarean delivery; HIE, hypoxic ischemic encephalopathy; n/a, not applicable; QALY, quality-adjusted life-years; TOLAC, trial of labor after a previous cesarean.


a Extrapolated from Chung et al, midway between ERCD and rupture.[3]


b Blend of Harris et al and Chung et al at 55% and 45%, respectively, to represent the proportion of women with a hysterectomy who would and would not have desired another pregnancy[3] [25] For Chung et al, assumed the disutility and disutility days in the table, and from Harris et al, disutilities of 0.31 (0.14–0.48) until age 50.


c Disutility range for cerebral palsy of 0.26–0.61.


d Baseline utility of 1 for all infants without cerebral palsy or HIE, with a range of (0.25–1) tested in sensitivity analysis.


To test the robustness of the results obtained from the base-case model, sensitivity analyses were performed. One-way sensitivity analysis was conducted on all probabilities, costs, and QALYs by varying one variable at a time from the low to high value in its range while holding other variables fixed. Multivariable sensitivity analysis also was conducted by varying more than one probability at a time. This included bivariable as well as probabilistic sensitivity analysis using Monte Carlo simulation with 10,000 iterations to determine how often the base-case strategy was preferred. Simulation was conducted using the β or uniform distribution for the probabilities where appropriate and the gamma distribution for costs. Sensitivity analysis was also conducted on the discount rate, using 0%, 5%, and 7%.


#

Results

The base-case analysis revealed that, for a hypothetical cohort of 100,000 women, the choice of TOLAC resulted in 68,077 fewer cesarean deliveries, 201 fewer hysterectomies, and 25 fewer maternal deaths ([Table 4]). Conversely, TOLAC was associated with 779 additional uterine ruptures, as well as adverse neonatal outcomes of sepsis, RDS, and acidemia. Additionally, among those undergoing TOLAC, CP was estimated to occur in an additional six offspring. The TOLAC strategy, therefore, was dominant and resulted in $138.6 million saved and 1703 QALYs gained per 100,000 women.

Table 4

Maternal and Infant Outcomes per 100,000 Women

TOLAC

ERCD

Deliveries

100,000

100,000

Cesarean deliveries

31,923

100,000

Maternal

 Uterine rupture

779

0

 Maternal death

0

25

 Hysterectomy

76

277

 Endometritis

3492

2111

Infant

 Infant death

51

25

 Cerebral palsy

6

0

 HIE

51

0

 Sepsis

5227

3115

 RDS

679

528

 Acidemia

302

226

Abbreviations: ERCD, elective repeat cesarean delivery; HIE, hypoxic ischemic encephalopathy; RDS, respiratory distress syndrome; TOLAC, trial of labor after a previous cesarean.


One-way sensitivity analysis was performed across the full range for all the variables. The results were robust to all changes except for five variables ([Fig. 1]). These variables and their thresholds, or where the preferred strategy changed, were the probability of uterine rupture (4.2%), the probability of successful TOLAC (42.2%), and without any complications the cost of ERCD ($9040.00) and the cost of successful TOLAC ($11,428.00) as well as the QALY of failed TOLAC (27.00), which represented a disutility of 0.47 for 132 days or more. Bivariable analysis on the probability of uterine rupture and successful TOLAC indicated that when the probability of uterine rupture was at 0%, the TOLAC strategy was preferred if the probability of success was 36.6% or more. When the probability of uterine rupture was at the base value, 0.8%, the TOLAC strategy was preferred as long as the probability of success was 42.6% or more. With the uterine rupture rate set at 1.5% and 3.0%, the probability of success had to be 47.2% and 58.4% or less, respectively, for the preferred strategy to change to an ERCD. When the probability of success was at the base value, 68.5%, TOLAC was preferred when the probability of rupture was 4.2% or less. When the probability of TOLAC success was 36.0% or less, ERCD was preferred over the entire range of the probability of uterine rupture (0 to 5.0%).

Zoom Image
Fig. 1 Tornado diagram of five variables with thresholds. Abbreviations: ERCD, elective repeat cesarean delivery; QALY, quality-adjusted life-years; TOLAC, trial of labor after a previous cesarean.

Monte Carlo simulation of the five sensitive variables at cost-effectiveness thresholds of $25, $50, and $100 thousand found TOLAC to be preferred 91.2%, 91.9%, and 91.1% of the time, respectively.


#

Discussion

Under base-case assumptions, after one cesarean with a low transverse incision, TOLAC was the most cost-effective strategy and would save approximately $138.6 million per 100,000 women when compared with ERCD. This analysis improves upon prior analyses in several ways. First, we utilized an observational study specifically conducted to answer questions related to modes of delivery after a previous cesarean to obtain maternal and perinatal outcome probabilities. Second, the probabilities used for the decision analytic model were derived using propensity sores. This allowed us to uniquely develop TOLAC and ERCD groups with well-balanced baseline covariates with minimal bias. Moreover, whereas previous studies relied on cost data that were derived from a single institution, the cost data for this analysis were obtained from U.S. national sources, the AHRQ and the AMA.

Of the two economic reports noted to have the most methodological rigor in the 2003 AHRQ technology report, the present analysis is most comparable to the study by Chung et al, because both consider outcomes of the current pregnancy.[3] A main criticism of the Chung et al work was that minimal sensitivity analysis was used.[1] The present analysis demonstrates that although TOLAC is cost-effective under many circumstances, this conclusion is highly dependent upon several key variables which, if altered sufficiently, result in the alternate strategy of ERCD being preferred.

Indeed, this finding reveals that the cost-effectiveness of TOLAC depends upon the characteristics of women who choose to attempt a vaginal birth. For example, TOLAC will no longer be cost-effective when the chance of VBAC success is low. One-way sensitivity analyses found TOLAC not cost-effective when the probability of successful TOLAC was below 42%.

Limitations of this analysis should be noted. For feasibility and clarity, the maternal and infant outcome probabilities were based on a hierarchy and therefore no more than one complication could be experienced by an individual. However, the effect this would have on the cost-effectiveness results would be de minimus at best because less than 0.03% and 2.5% of the mothers and neonates, respectively, experienced more than one outcome. In addition, this study did not include the potential long-term maternal outcomes of fecal and urinary incontinence due to the fact that the marginal increase in these outcomes due to TOLAC is not well known.[1] [28] [29] The 2003 AHRQ Evidence report specifically criticized Chung et al for including incontinence because no conclusive evidence linking the probability of incontinence outcomes to delivery approach could be found.[1] Unfortunately, conclusive evidence is still lacking and consequently they were not incorporated in the present model.

This analysis also excluded the important long-term outcomes of placenta accreta and previa in subsequent pregnancies. The determination of the exact cost-effectiveness over the life course would require a separate, more complex model taking into account uncertainties of future reproduction. Nevertheless, including these data inputs would only make the cost effectiveness of TOLAC greater. Additionally, the base case of this analysis did not include women undergoing labor induction and instead was predicated on women in spontaneous labor and included probabilities of success and rupture consistent with this type of labor. The sensitivity analysis, however, allows insight into whether induction would be cost-effective as well. The 2010 AHRQ evidence report estimated that the frequency of rupture for those induced at any gestational age was approximately 1.5%.[30] Even at this frequency, the preferred strategy changes to an ERCD only when the probability of success was approximately less than 47%. Most women induced, and particularly those with a favorable cervix, would be expected to have a chance of success greater than that threshold.

In conclusion, using an analytic framework designed to minimize bias, we found that a trial of labor after one previous low transverse cesarean is more cost-effective than an ERCD under a wide range of circumstances. This conclusion is strengthened in particular for women who undergo a spontaneous TOLAC with a high chance of success.


#
Appendix
Table A1

Additional Detail on Maternal Cost Estimates

Maternal outcomes

Hospital

Obstetrician

Anesthesia

Subtotal

Maternal

Caregiver

Total

Uterine rupture

2,325

728

3,840

1,008

Maternal death

20,000

23,053

27,901

Thromboembolism

11,218

14,271

19,119

Hysterectomy

12,486

15,539

20,387

Operative injury

8,496

11,549

16,397

Wound infection

10,184

13,237

18,085

Endometritis

10,348

13,401

18,249

Maternal no other morbidity

5,964

9,017

13,865

Failed TOLAC

2,325

728

3,840

1,008

Maternal death

20,000

23,053

27,901

Thromboembolism

10,475

13,528

18,376

Hysterectomy

11,743

14,796

19,644

Operative injury

7,753

10,806

15,654

Wound infection

9,441

12,494

17,342

Endometritis

9,605

12,658

17,506

Maternal well discharge

5,221

8,274

13,122

Successful TOLAC

2,068

297

1,280

432

Maternal death

20,000

22,365

24,077

Thromboembolism

9,260

11,625

13,337

Hysterectomy

10,528

12,893

14,605

Operative injury

6,538

8,903

10,615

Wound infection

8,226

10,591

12,303

Endometritis

8,390

10,755

12,467

Maternal well discharge

4,006

6,371

8,083

ERCD

2,222

342

3,840

1,008

Maternal death

20,000

22,564

27,412

Thromboembolism

9,198

11,762

16,610

Hysterectomy

10,466

13,030

17,878

Operative injury

6,476

9,040

13,888

Wound infection

8,164

10,728

15,576

Endometritis

8,328

10,892

15,740

Maternal well discharge

3,944

6,508

11,356

Currency in dollars ($). Hospital costs were obtained from HCUPnet,[17] International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision codes: ERCD, 669.71; rupture, 665.11; failed TOLAC, 660.61; successful TOLAC, 654.21; thromboembolism, 671.44; hysterectomy, 68.49 (procedure code); operative injury, 665.54; wound infection, 674.34; endometritis 670.02. Maternal well discharge represents the cost of the mode of delivery, whereas maternal outcomes represent the cost for the mode of delivery plus the cost of the outcome. For example, the cost of an ERCD was $3,944 and the cost of thromboembolism was $5,254, resulting in an ERCD with thromboembolism cost of $9,198. Obstetrician costs were obtained from the 2010 American Medical Association Current Procedural Terminology codes adjusted to 2009 dollars.[18] ERCD Current Procedural Terminology code 59510; Rupture 59618; Failed TOLAC 59618; Successful TOLAC 59610. Anesthesia costs were obtained from Chung et al by mode of delivery and translated into 2009 dollars.[3] Maternal and caregiver postpartum opportunity costs were derived from the Bureau of Labor Statistics using the 2009 median hourly wage and salary averages for women 25 to 34 years old and for all sexes 16 years and older, respectively.[19] For ERCD, rupture, failed TOLAC maternal opportunity costs were included for 6 weeks at 40 hours per week at $16 per hour whereas for caregiver costs were included for 7 days, 8 hours per day at $18 per hour. For successful TOLAC, maternal opportunity costs were included for 2 weeks, 40 hours per week at $16 per hour and caregiver costs were included for 3 days, 8 hours per day at $18 per hour. Abbreviations: ERCD, elective repeat cesarean delivery; TOLAC, trial of labor after a previous cesarean.

Table A2

Additional Detail on Infant Cost Estimates

Infant outcome

Hospital

Pediatrician

Total

Failed TOLAC/ERCD

 Neonatal death

50,000

2,151

52,151

 CP (failed TOLAC only)

73,438

8,976

82,414

 HIE

36,719

4,158

40,877

 Sepsis

5,597

2,954

8,551

 RDS

23,317

2,151

25,468

 TTN

6,509

2,151

8,660

 Acidemia

5,183

2,151

7,334

 Infant well discharge

771

124

895

Uterine rupture

 Neonatal death

50,000

2,151

52,151

 CP

73,438

8,976

82,414

 HIE

36,719

4,158

40,877

 Sepsis

5,597

2,954

8,551

 RDS

23,317

2,552

25,869

 TTN

6,509

2,552

9,061

 Acidemia

5,183

2,552

7,735

 Infant well discharge

771

156

927

Successful TOLAC

 Neonatal death

50,000

2,151

52,151

 CP

73,438

8,976

82,414

 HIE

36,719

4,158

40,877

 Sepsis

5,597

2,954

8,551

 RDS

23,317

2,151

25,468

 TTN

6,509

2,151

8,660

 Acidemia

5,183

2,151

7,334

 Infant well discharge

771

91

862

Currency in dollars ($). Hospital costs were obtained from HCUPnet,[17] International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision codes: HIE, 768.7; infection, 771.81; RDS, 769; TTN, 770.6; infant well 795 (DRG). Pediatrician costs based on length of stay from the Cesarean Registry and 2010 Current Procedural Terminology codes[18] adjusted to 2009 dollars; 99460, 99466, 99468, 99469; for no other infant morbidity, pediatrician coverage was assigned in the base-case as 4 days for rupture, 3 days for ERCD and failed TOLAC, 2 days for successful TOLAC. For ERCD, rupture, failed TOLAC, an additional day was added for the outcomes RDS, TTN, acidemia, and an additional 2 days for successful TOLAC. For all modes of delivery, infection, HIE, and CP were assumed to have a pediatrician coverage of 6, 9, and 21 days, respectively. CP costs through hospital discharge. Abbreviations: ERCD, elective repeat cesarean delivery; CP, cerebral palsy; HIE, hypoxic ischemic encephalopathy; RDS, respiratory distress syndrome; TOLAC, trial of labor after a previous cesarean; TTN, transient tachypnea of the newborn.


#

Acknowledgments

The authors thank the following core committee network members who participated in protocol development and coordination between clinical research centers (Francee Johnson, BSN, Julia Gold BSN/APN), data management (Sandra Meadows), protocol/data management and statistical analysis (Elizabeth Thom, PhD, and John C. Hauth, MD), and manuscript review (Yasser El-Sayed, MD).

In addition to the authors, other members of the Eunice Kennedy Shriver National Institute of Child Health and Human Development Maternal-Fetal Medicine Units Network are as follows:

The George Washington University Biostatistics Center—E. Thom, H. Juliussen-Stevenson, M. Fischer, L. Leuchtenburg

Northwestern University—A. Peaceman, M. Socol, D. Gradishar, G. Mallett

The Ohio State University—J. Iams, F. Johnson, S. Meadows, H. Walker

University of Alabama at Birmingham—J. Hauth, A. Northen, S. Tate

University of Texas Southwestern Medical Center—S. Bloom, J. Gold, D. Bradford

University of Utah—M. Belfort (Utah Valley Regional Medical Center), F. Porter (Intermountain Healthcare), B. Oshiro (McKay-Dee Hospital Center), K. Anderson (University of Utah Health Sciences Center), A. Guzman (McKay-Dee Hospital Center)

University of Pittsburgh—S. Caritis, K. Lain, M. Cotroneo, D. Fischer, M. Luce

Wake Forest University Health Sciences—P. Meis, M. Harper, M. Swain, C. Moorefield, K. Lanier, L. Steele

Thomas Jefferson University—A. Sciscione, M. DiVito, M. Talucci, M. Pollock

Wayne State University—M. Dombrowski, G. Norman, A. Millinder, C. Sudz, B. Steffy

University of Cincinnati—M. Miodovnik, T. Siddiqi, H. How, N. Elder

Columbia University—M. Miodovnik, F. Malone, M. D'Alton, V. Pemberton, V. Carmona, H. Husami

Brown University—M. Carpenter, H. Silver, J. Tillinghast, D. Catlow, D. Allard

University of Miami—G. Burkett, J. Gilles, J. Potter, F. Doyle, S. Chandler

University of Tennessee—W. Mabie, R. Ramsey

University of Texas at San Antonio—O. Langer, D. Conway, S. Barker, M. Rodriguez

University of North Carolina—K. Moise, K. Dorman, S. Brody, J. Mitchell

The University of Texas Health Science Center at Houston—L. Gilstrap, M. Day, M. Kerr, E. Gildersleeve

Case Western Reserve University-MetroHealth Medical Center—P. Catalano, C. Milluzzi, B. Slivers, C. Santori

University of Chicago—A. Moawad, J. Hibbard, P. Jones, M. Ramos-Brinson, M. Moran, D. Scott

Eunice Kennedy Shriver National Institute of Child Health and Human Development—D. McNellis, K. Howell, S. Tolivaisa

MFMU Steering Committee Chair (Vanderbilt University Medical Center)—S. Gabbe

Disclosure

The project described was supported by grants from the Eunice Kennedy Shriver National Institute of Child Health and Human Development (NICHD) of the National Institutes of Health (NIH) [HD21410, HD21414, HD27860, HD27861, HD27869, HD27905, HD27915, HD27917, HD34116, HD34122, HD34136, HD34208, HD34210, HD40500, HD40485, HD40544, HD40545, HD40560, HD40512, and HD36801] and its contents are solely the responsibility of the authors and do not necessarily represent the official view of NICHD or the NIH.

Presented at the 32nd Annual Meeting of the Society for Maternal-Fetal Medicine. February 6 to 11, 2012. Dallas, Texas.


  • References

  • 1 Guise J-M, McDonagh M, Hashima J , et al. Vaginal birth after cesarean (VBAC). Evidence report/technology assessment no. 71 (prepared by the Oregon Health & Science University Evidence-based Practice Center under Contract no. 290–97–0018). AHRQ Publication No. 03–E018. Rockville, MD: Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality; 2003
  • 2 Grobman WA, Peaceman AM, Socol ML. Cost-effectiveness of elective cesarean delivery after one prior low transverse cesarean. Obstet Gynecol 2000; 95: 745-751
  • 3 Chung A, Macario A, El-Sayed YY, Riley ET, Duncan B, Druzin ML. Cost-effectiveness of a trial of labor after previous cesarean. Obstet Gynecol 2001; 97: 932-941
  • 4 Macones GA, Peipert J, Nelson DB , et al. Maternal complications with vaginal birth after cesarean delivery: a multicenter study. Am J Obstet Gynecol 2005; 193: 1656-1662
  • 5 Landon MB, Hauth JC, Leveno KJ , et al; National Institute of Child Health and Human Development Maternal-Fetal Medicine Units Network. Maternal and perinatal outcomes associated with a trial of labor after prior cesarean delivery. N Engl J Med 2004; 351: 2581-2589
  • 6 McMahon MJ, Luther ER, Bowes Jr WA, Olshan AF. Comparison of a trial of labor with an elective second cesarean section. N Engl J Med 1996; 335: 689-695
  • 7 Flamm BL, Goings JR, Liu Y, Wolde-Tsadik G. Elective repeat cesarean delivery versus trial of labor: a prospective multicenter study. Obstet Gynecol 1994; 83: 927-932
  • 8 Gold MR, Siegel JE, Russell LB, Weinstein MC. for the Panel on Cost-Effectiveness in Health and Medicine. Cost-Effectiveness in Health and Medicine. New York, NY: Oxford University Press; 1996: 6
  • 9 Spong CY, Landon MB, Gilbert S , et al; National Institute of Child Health and Human Development (NICHD) Maternal-Fetal Medicine Units (MFMU) Network. Risk of uterine rupture and adverse perinatal outcome at term after cesarean delivery. Obstet Gynecol 2007; 110: 801-807
  • 10 American College of Obstetricians and Gynecologists. ACOG Committee Opinion No. 394, December 2007. Cesarean delivery on maternal request. Obstet Gynecol 2007; 110: 1501
  • 11 ACOG Committee on Practice Bulletins—Obstetrics. ACOG Practice Bulletin No. 107: Induction of labor. Obstet Gynecol 2009; 114 (2 Pt 1) 386-397
  • 12 Grobman WA, Gilbert S, Landon MB , et al. Outcomes of induction of labor after one prior cesarean. Obstet Gynecol 2007; 109 (2 Pt 1) 262-269
  • 13 Rosenbaum PR, Rubin DB. The central role of the propensity score in observational studies for causal effects. Biometrika 1983; 70: 41-55
  • 14 Gilbert SA, Grobman WA, Landon MB , et al; Eunice Kennedy Shriver National Institute of Child Health and Human Development Maternal-Fetal Medicine Units Network. Elective repeat cesarean delivery compared with spontaneous trial of labor after a prior cesarean delivery: a propensity score analysis. Am J Obstet Gynecol 2012; 206: e1-e9
  • 15 Badawi N, Felix JF, Kurinczuk JJ , et al. Cerebral palsy following term newborn encephalopathy: a population-based study. Dev Med Child Neurol 2005; 47: 293-298
  • 16 Casella G. Refining binomial confidence intervals. Can J Stat 1986; 14: 113-129
  • 17 U.S. Department of Health and Human Services. HCUPnet, Healthcare Cost and Utilization Project. Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality, Rockville, MD. Available at: http://hcupnet.ahrq.gov/ . Accessed July 7, 2011
  • 18 American Medical Association. Available at: http://catalog.ama-assn.org/Catalog/cpt/cpt_search.jsp . Accessed September 28, 2010
  • 19 United States Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. Available at: http://www.bls.gov/cps/cpswktabs.htm . Accessed November 6, 2010
  • 20 Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). Economic costs associated with mental retardation, cerebral palsy, hearing loss, and vision impairment—United States, 2003. MMWR Morb Mortal Wkly Rep 2004; 53: 57-59
  • 21 Katz RT. Life expectancy for children with cerebral palsy and mental retardation: implications for life care planning. NeuroRehabilitation 2003; 18: 261-270
  • 22 Cerebral Palsy Source . Available at: http://www.cerebralpalsysource.com/About_CP/life_cp/index.html . Accessed October 25, 2009
  • 23 Haddox AC, Teutsch SM, Corso PS. Prevention Effectiveness a Guide to Decision Analysis and Economic Evaluation. New York, NY: Oxford University Press; 2003: 115
  • 24 United States Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. Consumer Price Index. Available at: http://www.bls.gov/cpi/ . Accessed July 7, 2011
  • 25 Harris RA, Washington AE, Nease Jr RF, Kuppermann M. Cost utility of prenatal diagnosis and the risk-based threshold. Lancet 2004; 363: 276-282
  • 26 Carroll AE, Downs SM. Comprehensive cost-utility analysis of newborn screening strategies. Pediatrics 2006; 117 (5 Pt 2) S287-S295
  • 27 Arias E. United States Life Tables, 2006. National Vital Statistics Reports. Vol. 58, No. 21. Hyattsville, MD: National Center for Health Statistics; 2010
  • 28 NIH State-of-the-Science Conference Statement on cesarean delivery on maternal request. NIH Consens State Sci Statements 2006; 23: 1-29
  • 29 Vintzileos AM, Beazoglou T. Design, execution, interpretation, and reporting of economic evaluation studies in obstetrics. Am J Obstet Gynecol 2004; 191: 1070-1076
  • 30 Guise JM, Eden K, Emeis C , et al. Vaginal birth after cesarean: new insights. Evidence/report technology assessment no. 191. (Prepared by the Oregon Health and Science University Evidence-based Practice Center under contract no. 290–2007–10057-I. AHRQ publication no. 10–E003. Rockville, MD: Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality). 2010

Address for correspondence and reprint requests

Sharon A. Gilbert, MS, MBA
The George Washington University
6110 Executive Blvd, Suite 750
Rockville, MD 20852   

  • References

  • 1 Guise J-M, McDonagh M, Hashima J , et al. Vaginal birth after cesarean (VBAC). Evidence report/technology assessment no. 71 (prepared by the Oregon Health & Science University Evidence-based Practice Center under Contract no. 290–97–0018). AHRQ Publication No. 03–E018. Rockville, MD: Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality; 2003
  • 2 Grobman WA, Peaceman AM, Socol ML. Cost-effectiveness of elective cesarean delivery after one prior low transverse cesarean. Obstet Gynecol 2000; 95: 745-751
  • 3 Chung A, Macario A, El-Sayed YY, Riley ET, Duncan B, Druzin ML. Cost-effectiveness of a trial of labor after previous cesarean. Obstet Gynecol 2001; 97: 932-941
  • 4 Macones GA, Peipert J, Nelson DB , et al. Maternal complications with vaginal birth after cesarean delivery: a multicenter study. Am J Obstet Gynecol 2005; 193: 1656-1662
  • 5 Landon MB, Hauth JC, Leveno KJ , et al; National Institute of Child Health and Human Development Maternal-Fetal Medicine Units Network. Maternal and perinatal outcomes associated with a trial of labor after prior cesarean delivery. N Engl J Med 2004; 351: 2581-2589
  • 6 McMahon MJ, Luther ER, Bowes Jr WA, Olshan AF. Comparison of a trial of labor with an elective second cesarean section. N Engl J Med 1996; 335: 689-695
  • 7 Flamm BL, Goings JR, Liu Y, Wolde-Tsadik G. Elective repeat cesarean delivery versus trial of labor: a prospective multicenter study. Obstet Gynecol 1994; 83: 927-932
  • 8 Gold MR, Siegel JE, Russell LB, Weinstein MC. for the Panel on Cost-Effectiveness in Health and Medicine. Cost-Effectiveness in Health and Medicine. New York, NY: Oxford University Press; 1996: 6
  • 9 Spong CY, Landon MB, Gilbert S , et al; National Institute of Child Health and Human Development (NICHD) Maternal-Fetal Medicine Units (MFMU) Network. Risk of uterine rupture and adverse perinatal outcome at term after cesarean delivery. Obstet Gynecol 2007; 110: 801-807
  • 10 American College of Obstetricians and Gynecologists. ACOG Committee Opinion No. 394, December 2007. Cesarean delivery on maternal request. Obstet Gynecol 2007; 110: 1501
  • 11 ACOG Committee on Practice Bulletins—Obstetrics. ACOG Practice Bulletin No. 107: Induction of labor. Obstet Gynecol 2009; 114 (2 Pt 1) 386-397
  • 12 Grobman WA, Gilbert S, Landon MB , et al. Outcomes of induction of labor after one prior cesarean. Obstet Gynecol 2007; 109 (2 Pt 1) 262-269
  • 13 Rosenbaum PR, Rubin DB. The central role of the propensity score in observational studies for causal effects. Biometrika 1983; 70: 41-55
  • 14 Gilbert SA, Grobman WA, Landon MB , et al; Eunice Kennedy Shriver National Institute of Child Health and Human Development Maternal-Fetal Medicine Units Network. Elective repeat cesarean delivery compared with spontaneous trial of labor after a prior cesarean delivery: a propensity score analysis. Am J Obstet Gynecol 2012; 206: e1-e9
  • 15 Badawi N, Felix JF, Kurinczuk JJ , et al. Cerebral palsy following term newborn encephalopathy: a population-based study. Dev Med Child Neurol 2005; 47: 293-298
  • 16 Casella G. Refining binomial confidence intervals. Can J Stat 1986; 14: 113-129
  • 17 U.S. Department of Health and Human Services. HCUPnet, Healthcare Cost and Utilization Project. Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality, Rockville, MD. Available at: http://hcupnet.ahrq.gov/ . Accessed July 7, 2011
  • 18 American Medical Association. Available at: http://catalog.ama-assn.org/Catalog/cpt/cpt_search.jsp . Accessed September 28, 2010
  • 19 United States Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. Available at: http://www.bls.gov/cps/cpswktabs.htm . Accessed November 6, 2010
  • 20 Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). Economic costs associated with mental retardation, cerebral palsy, hearing loss, and vision impairment—United States, 2003. MMWR Morb Mortal Wkly Rep 2004; 53: 57-59
  • 21 Katz RT. Life expectancy for children with cerebral palsy and mental retardation: implications for life care planning. NeuroRehabilitation 2003; 18: 261-270
  • 22 Cerebral Palsy Source . Available at: http://www.cerebralpalsysource.com/About_CP/life_cp/index.html . Accessed October 25, 2009
  • 23 Haddox AC, Teutsch SM, Corso PS. Prevention Effectiveness a Guide to Decision Analysis and Economic Evaluation. New York, NY: Oxford University Press; 2003: 115
  • 24 United States Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. Consumer Price Index. Available at: http://www.bls.gov/cpi/ . Accessed July 7, 2011
  • 25 Harris RA, Washington AE, Nease Jr RF, Kuppermann M. Cost utility of prenatal diagnosis and the risk-based threshold. Lancet 2004; 363: 276-282
  • 26 Carroll AE, Downs SM. Comprehensive cost-utility analysis of newborn screening strategies. Pediatrics 2006; 117 (5 Pt 2) S287-S295
  • 27 Arias E. United States Life Tables, 2006. National Vital Statistics Reports. Vol. 58, No. 21. Hyattsville, MD: National Center for Health Statistics; 2010
  • 28 NIH State-of-the-Science Conference Statement on cesarean delivery on maternal request. NIH Consens State Sci Statements 2006; 23: 1-29
  • 29 Vintzileos AM, Beazoglou T. Design, execution, interpretation, and reporting of economic evaluation studies in obstetrics. Am J Obstet Gynecol 2004; 191: 1070-1076
  • 30 Guise JM, Eden K, Emeis C , et al. Vaginal birth after cesarean: new insights. Evidence/report technology assessment no. 191. (Prepared by the Oregon Health and Science University Evidence-based Practice Center under contract no. 290–2007–10057-I. AHRQ publication no. 10–E003. Rockville, MD: Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality). 2010

Zoom Image
Fig. 1 Tornado diagram of five variables with thresholds. Abbreviations: ERCD, elective repeat cesarean delivery; QALY, quality-adjusted life-years; TOLAC, trial of labor after a previous cesarean.