Abstract
Background Maternal–fetal medicine is a rapidly growing field requiring collaboration from many
subspecialties. We provide an evidence-based estimate of capacity needs for our clinic,
as well as demonstrate how simulation can aid in capacity planning in similar environments.
Methods A Discrete Event Simulation of the Center for Fetal Diagnosis and Treatment and Special
Delivery Unit at The Children's Hospital of Philadelphia was designed and validated.
This model was then used to determine the time until demand overwhelms inpatient bed
availability under increasing capacity.
Findings No significant deviation was found between historical inpatient censuses and simulated
censuses for the validation phase (p = 0.889). Prospectively increasing capacity was found to delay time to balk (the
inability of the center to provide bed space for a patient in need of admission).
With current capacity, the model predicts mean time to balk of 276 days. Adding three
beds delays mean time to first balk to 762 days; an additional six beds to 1,335 days.
Conclusion Providing sufficient access is a patient safety issue, and good planning is crucial
for targeting infrastructure investments appropriately. Computer-simulated analysis
can provide an evidence base for both medical and administrative decision making in
a complex clinical environment.
Keywords
Maternal–fetal medicine - discrete event simulation - planning - operations research
