Prediction of COVID-19 Severity at Delivery after Asymptomatic or Mild COVID-19 during Pregnancy

Abstract

Objective This study aimed to develop a prediction model that estimates the probability that a pregnant person who has had asymptomatic or mild coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) prior to delivery admission will progress in severity to moderate, severe, or critical COVID-19.

Study Design This was a secondary analysis of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2)-positive patients who delivered from March through December 2020 at hospitals across the United States. Those eligible for this analysis presented for delivery with a current or previous asymptomatic or mild SARS-CoV-2 infection. The primary outcome was moderate, severe, or critical COVID-19 during the delivery admission through 42 days postpartum. The prediction model was developed and internally validated using stratified cross-validation with stepwise backward elimination, incorporating only variables that were known on the day of hospital admission.

Results Of the 2,818 patients included, 26 (0.9%; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.6–1.3%) developed moderate–severe–critical COVID-19 during the study period. Variables in the prediction model were gestational age at delivery admission (adjusted odds ratio [aOR], 1.15; 95% CI, 1.08–1.22 per 1-week decrease), a hypertensive disorder in a prior pregnancy (aOR 3.05; 95% CI, 1.25–7.46), and systolic blood pressure at admission (aOR, 1.04; 95% CI, 1.02–1.05 per mm Hg increase). This model yielded an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.82 (95% CI, 0.72–0.91).

Conclusion Among individuals presenting for delivery who had asymptomatic–mild COVID-19, gestational age at delivery admission, a hypertensive disorder in a prior pregnancy, and systolic blood pressure at admission were predictive of delivering with moderate, severe, or critical COVID-19. This prediction model may be a useful tool to optimize resources for SARS-CoV-2-infected pregnant individuals admitted for delivery.

Key Points

• Three factors were associated with delivery with more severe COVID-19.

• The developed model yielded an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.82 and model fit was good.

• The model may be useful tool for SARS-CoV-2 infected pregnancies admitted for delivery.

Keywords

SARS-CoV-2 - COVID-19 pandemic - prediction

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